After a week of reading forums, blogs and official sites, I came to a conclusion regarding the possibilities to make nice amounts of money thru Diablo 3 RMAH.
First thing was the Blizzard announcement that they have sold 1 million copies of Diablo 3 thru Annual Pass.The second was an estimate made by analysts that Blizzard will sell 5 million copies in first year of Diablo 3 launch.Based on the 20 million copies of Diablo 1 & 2 sold up to the date, it is fairly sure that Diablo 3 will see probably over 5 million copies sold in first year, but let’s stick to what the analysts estimate.They know better.
The third thing was reading countless posts and replies on EU and US Diablo 3 forums, mainly on Trading section, most of the posts being in the range “nobody will make a living off RMAH”, “Iwill not spend any money in RMAH”.This alone made me wonder if they are right or just trolling.
There are a number of questions arising when one ask if RMAH can be a possibility to make money, and not peanuts, but really good money.
The number 1 question is : “How many D3 players will spend money on RMAH?”.The answer is not hard to find, tbh.Most D3 players will be mature players, with jobs, families, responsibilities, hence, with very limited time to play, but with money to spend.
I believe that like 70% of the D3 players will have under 2 hours / day, or, put it better, like 10-12 hours / week (assuming 4-5 hours in weekend days).How many of those will spend money in RMAH ? Most likely, 90% of them will NOT spend any money.But 10% of them MIGHT.AND 10% of them means 7% of total players (10% out of 70% = 7%).
Now, will ALL of those 7% spend money on RMAH ? Ofc, no, not all of them will…but like half of them will.And that is 3,5% of the player base.Now, we have 5 million copies sold WORLDWIDE, split in 3 zones : North America, Europe and Asia.It is fair to say that all the zones will be kinda equal, with NA and EU having bit more, but not much more.
A fairly estimate for NA or EU would be 1,7-1,8 million players.3,5% of 1,700,000 = 51,000.It is not unreal to think that 51,000 EU players will spend money in RMAH.They will have LIMITED time to play, which means lowest amount of gold and lowest chances for good drops (more time = more kills = more chances for drops).They WILL use their money to fill in the gap needed to play Inferno.
How much would are they willing to spend in RMAH to buy the goodies needed to have a smooth and enjoyable game experience ? 50 euros / year ? 100 euros / year ? More ?
A guy in a developed EU country (France, Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, etc) who have a normal 9-17 job earn like 2,000-3,000 euros / month.Would he pay 100 euros / year to buy a 50 euros very good weapon and another 50 euros for 2 pieces of very good gear, all of them needing otherwise MONTHS of farming (months because with 2 hours / day it kinda sucks) ?
I believe that a medium amount spent / player will be 100-150 euros / year.Which means : 51,000 x 100 euros = 5,100,000 euros / year.Now, based on what is happening in WoW AH, there are like 20 millionaires MAX / server.With 220 or so server, that means 4,400 millionaires in WoW…out of 10,000,000.Which means 0,044%.And they are amassing about 35% of the TOTAL WoW gold.
Most likely same will happen in Diablo 3 also.The percentage of players who will be really rich will be around 0.05%.Out of the 1,7 millions EU Diablo 3 players, this means like 850 players.They will amas like 35% of those 5,1 million euros, which means 1,785,000 euros.Divided to 850, means 2,100 euros / year, which means only 175 euros /month.
Not much, BUT…out of those 850, only about 200 will get the big share, probably like half of those 1,785,000 euros, which means like 890,000 euros.Divide this figure to 200, and every one of those players will earn 4462 euros / year, or like 370 euros / month.
There will be people who will make 1,000 euros / month, people who will make 300, people who will make 100 and people who will make 10 euros/ month.
The potential is there.Those few who WILL make 1,000 euros / month or more will need some key elements to achieve this : first is TIME, second is Gold AH manipulation, third is economic knowledge, fourth is gaming experience in trading, fifth is INSPIRATION and last is LUCK.
If you miss only ONE of the above, you will most likely fall in the 100 euros or less made per month.
Bozzor, Gold Multimillionaire.